There is NO Autism Epidemic: Autism Prevalence 1 in 36 (According to CDC Data)

Explaining The Increase: Factors contributing to the increase in Autism numbers. I will also share what I, personally, believe the REAL number is at the end of the piece.

According to the most recent report by the CDC, 1 in 36 children have been identified as Autistic. Before that, they thought we were 1 in 44, and when I found out I was Autistic less than ten years ago, they were saying it was 1 in 59.

Data & Statistics on Autism Spectrum DisorderPrintPrevalenceAbout 1 in 36 children has been identified with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) according to estimates from the CDC’s Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. [Read article] ASD is reported to occur in all racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups. [Read article]

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There Aren’t MORE Autistic People - We Know More

To the untrained eye, this may look as if there are "more Autistic People than ever." However, in reality, Autistic People have always been here.

There aren't "more Autistic People" on earth all of a sudden; we have more Autistic People BEING IDENTIFIED now (thanks to a few factors - increased awareness, understanding, and screening).

One myth I have seen online (that completely ignores the data) is that the rising prevalence of Autism is due to "social contagion" and people self-identifying "after hearing about Autism on Facebook or TikTok." However, the most recent estimate provided by the CDC is based on studying FORMALLY DIAGNOSED 8-year-olds who are not self-identified and are also technically too young to be on social media (because every platform I checked requires people to be at least 13). 

Can somebody PLEASE explain to me how “late diagnosed and self-identified Autistic adults” translates to “formally diagnosed 8-year-olds”???

Oh, wait! It DOESN’T!

The CDC Data we use to determine Autism prevalence historically has always focused on children, meaning late identified Autistic People and Autistic adults aren't even considered in the data. Therefore social media and Autistic Adults can't be held responsible for the increase in the diagnosis of 8-year-olds (UNLESS they are taking their 8-year-olds in for screening, which wouldn't be a bad thing). 

I've also seen people claiming that the increase in Autism prevalence is due to our increased awareness and understanding of Autism, which is partially true.

However, in addition to the expansion in our understanding of Autism and Autistic People, two main factors have contributed to the specific increase in the CDC's numbers:

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Paid subscribers got access to the full post on January 4, 2024 as a thanks for supporting my work. The full post became public on Tuesday, April 9, 2024.

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Pediatric Screenings at 18 and 24 months

The first major change that has had a significant impact on Autism numbers over the past fifteen years happened in 2007 when the American Academy of Pediatrics recommended ASD screening for every child (even if parents had no concerns) at both 18- and 24-month pediatric visits.

Before that, in 2006, the Autism prevalence rates were estimated to be 1 in 110. In 2008, as this program started rolling out, the data suggested that one in 88 children is Autistic. 

A few years later, in 2010, once the screening practice had become more widespread, the estimate was 1 in 68. That number mainly stayed the same for a few years, coming in only one point higher (at 1 in 69) a few years later in 2012. 

Another MAJOR change happened in 2013 when the American Psychiatric Association removed Asperger's Disorder, PDD-NOS, and Classic Autism as diagnostic categories with the release of the DSM-5, merging all three of these designations under the label of Autism Spectrum Disorder. 

This change meant new people (those with Asperger's and PPD-NOS) would now qualify under the Autism criteria (instead of receiving a separate diagnosis).

They widened the criteria, so more people qualified as Autistic, and the numbers started rising again. 

In 2014, we were 1 in 59. In 2016 (when I was diagnosed and started my blog), we were 1 in 54. 

A few years later, in 2018, we were 1 in 44, and now we are 1 in 36 (but if you ask me to guess, it's closer to 1 in 20 - maybe more because the data doesn't count adults and those who aren't identified as kids). 

Some families won't allow Autism screenings (due to cultural differences), and some underprivileged kids have less access to medical care and are often left out of screenings.

The more privileged Autistic People are more likely to be seen as Autistic, and those of us who are less privileged will have our Autism seen as other things (like mine was labeled "bad behavior" when I was growing up). 

If we are not cis, white men, or come from families who don't have much, we are more likely to slip through the cracks, being diagnosed in adulthood (if we are even diagnosed at all). 

The CDC needs a better way to gather its data because as long as Autistic Adults are excluded from these numbers (since we're not always diagnosed as kids), the numbers will always be inaccurate. 

What do YOU think the Autism prevalence REALLY IS? 

I KNOW it's higher than 1 in 36. I'm just waiting for the data to catch up. 

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What do YOU want to learn about?

Please, let me know in the comments below what questions you have or if you have another idea/topic you're curious about for a future article.